2019年4月7日 星期日

零基礎學投資(壹) -- 外幣定期存款

零基礎學投資(壹) -- 外幣定期存款, 現在簡單介紹一下做外幣外定期存款的概念。

一般來說銀行提供外幣定期存款幣種有: 美元(USD),日元(JPY),英鎊(GBP),澳洲元(AUD), 新西蘭元 (NZD), 加拿大元(CAD), 歐羅 (EUR)和 人民幣(RMB)等等。

例如在2000年-2001年強美元時期, 候低買入澳洲元, 新西蘭元儲蓄用作定期生息成本也較低。 投資外幣收息, 銀行會用電匯買入/賣出價與存戶結算~~ 例如某銀行2019年4月6日美元電匯買入價為 7.8384, 賣出價為7.8604 ,銀行主要賺這220點子中間差價, 當港幣轉成外幣後可以存在活期或定期存款收息。

影響外幣匯率主要有幾個:

1. 兩國貨幣的供應和需求, 匯率就是交換的均衡點;

2. 該外幣的購買力 ~~名義匯率=實際匯率X通貨膨脹比率,就是實際匯率的基礎上再考慮通貨膨脹的影響,衡量了一國貨幣的購買力水平;例如美國2009-11年間實行了三次貨幣量化寬鬆, 在這期間, 是弱美元, 強外幣的時代 (歐羅, 澳,紐,加元都與美元相反,在這段時間上升)

3.經濟因素,主要是一個國的投資,國民生產總值增長,國際貿易,資本流動等。例如國民生產總值增長吸引了外國直接投資導致對該國貨幣需求的增加,從而引起該國貨幣匯率上升。

4.利率因素: 例如由2015年起美國開始加息,導致資金回流美元區投資或存款, 而相對的歐羅, 澳,紐,加元都與美元相反, 呈下跌趨勢。

5. 當然, 亦有其他因素: 例如突發事件令資金避開風險買進美元, 政府干預 例如香港金管局便在$7.85 買入港元, 沽出美元以保持聯繫匯率穩定便是。

投資外幣, 要識兩樣野: 1)美匯指數 和 2)美元週期:-

1)美匯指數:美元指數,又稱美滙指數,是衡量美元在國際外匯市場匯率變化的一項綜合指標,由美元對六個主要國際貨幣(歐元、日元、英鎊、加拿大元、瑞典克朗和瑞士法郎)的匯率經過加權幾何平均數計算獲得。

在1973年3月布雷頓森林體系解體後,美元指數開始被選作參照點。那時美元指數是100.00。

目前該6國貨幣佔美元指數權重為: 歐元佔57.6%, 日元佔13.6%, 英鎊佔11.9%, 加元佔9.1%, 瑞典克朗佔4.2%, 瑞士法朗佔3.6%。

2)美元週期:-是指美元兌一藍子外幣如歐元,日元,英鎊,加元,瑞典克朗,瑞士法朗等在不同時間有強有弱,形成週期。

附以下圖表撮要了由1973年至2017年的強弱美元週期。

時間美元強弱
1973-1980弱美元
1981-1985強美元
1986-1995弱美元
1996-2001強美元
2002-2011弱美元
2012-2017強美元

應用:由於香港實行聯繫匯率, 在強美元美匯指數見頂時買入外幣收息理論上匯率風險及投資成本是較低的。

Learning investment from zero foundation(1):Foreign Currency Deposit: We are discuss the concepts of foreign currency deposit today.

Generally speaking, banks provide different currencies for deposit such as USD$, Japanese yen (JPY), British pounds (GBP), AUD$, NZD$, (GBP),CAD, Euro and Reminbi (RMB).

For instance, purchased foreign currencies like AUD and NZD during the strong USD period in years of 2000-2001 and put into fixed time deposit could enjoy lower cost. For investing foreign currencies for interest earning, bank will use teletransfer buy rate and sell rate to settle with the customers. For example, the bank buy 1 USD with HKD$7.8384, sell 1 USD$ with HKD$7.8604, the bank can earn 220 points difference as profit. After changing into foreign currency, the money can be either put into saving account or time deposit account.

There are several factors affecting forex rate:

1. the money demand and supply goes into equilibrium foreign exchange price.

2. purchasing power: nominal exchange rate =real exchange rate X inflation rate; for considering exchange rate need to take inflation and purchasing power into consideration. USA launched three times quantitative easing during 2009-2011, during that period USD$ was weak and other foreign currencies were relatively strong.

3. economic factor: Investment, Gross domestic production amount, balance of international trade, capital movement can affect forex. Foreign direct investment in a country can stimulate the demand of that currency thus push that currency value increases.

4. Interest rate:for example since 2015, US started to raise the interest rate thus attract capital move into US zone, other foreign currencies exchange rate started to fall.

5. Other factors like buying USD$ for risk avoidance and Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased USD$ ate 7.85 to maintain steady linked exchange rate.

Investing foreign currency need to know two things: (1)USD Index and (2)USD cycle.

(1)The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight,Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight,Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight,Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight,Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

(2)USD cycle:the strong and weak USD composite the trend during a time frame. The above table and diagram summarize the trends of strong and weak USD for about 50 years.

Application: Since Hong Kong adopt linked exchange rate, depositor purchase foreign currency for interest earning when USD Index reached the peak can enjoy lower forex risk and lower cost.


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