2019年4月25日 星期四

港股港股B浪反彈回吐, 調整

港股展開港股B浪反彈回吐, 調整。

恆生指數上次最底部為24,540.63點 (2018年10月30日見底), 之後展開今次反彈。

港股B浪反彈上升至2019年4月15日:30,280.12點完成B浪上升, 所以2準備調整, 上次2016年牛市1浪在2月中至4月底升完後, 6月因英國脫歐而調整, 不排除今次重滔2016年五窮六絕翻版, 是故需要留意是否有這個調整。

2018/10/30~2019/4/15 港股B浪反彈共升了:5,739.49點,歷時5個半月, 如果

回吐升幅0.236 X 5,729.49, 恆指=28,925.60點 或;

回吐升幅0.382 X 5,729.49, 恆指=28,087.63點。

股票投資者需慎防五~六月當中震盪。

2019年4月18日 星期四

零基礎學投資(貳) -- 上市公司股票投資

零基礎學投資(貳) -- 上市公司股票投資

近代公司股票歷史:-

股票制度,起源於1596年的荷蘭東印度公司。當時該公司經營航海事業。它在每次出海前向人集資,航程完成後即將各人的出資以及該航次的利潤交還給出資者。這就是「股東」和「配息」的前身。

香港股票市場簡史:-

香港證券交易所成立於1891年成立,讓香港得以擁有正式的股票交易市場。1986年4月四會合併,組成現時香港聯合交易所(聯交所)。而大家所知的香港交易所(港交所),則於2000年由香港聯合交易所、香港期貨交易所及香港中央結算有限公司合併而成。港交所設有兩個交易板塊—主板與創業板。

當一家公司需要更多資金來擴大規模, 它還可以透過增發股票引入新股東或上市,向公司股票投資者(股東)集資,投資者買入股票,等同出資給公司做生意,公司若有盈利,會向股東發放利息(即股息)作為回報,股東也可透過出售股票賺取股票差價。

香港股票市場,最少的購買單位是一手,例如在2019年4月18日接近收市時以$91.00 買入1手500股領展房地產信託基金, 投資成本為HKD$45,500; 證券商佣金(假設為0.25%):HKD$113.75; 中央結算及交割系統費用大約 HKD$2.00; 0.1%買入印花稅 HKD$45.50, 證監會徵費約0.0027%:HKD$1.23; 港交所交易徵費約0.005%:HKD$2.28, 所需總費用約為:-HKD$45,664.76。

如果買不起一手,又不想因儲錢而錯過入市時機(股票市場熊市末端至牛市一期),可以選擇月供方式買入股票:-就是定期定額買入股票。

初學上市公司股票投資可以由研究公用股和房地產信託基金開始, 原因是這兩類型公司業務較其他複雜的集團公司簡單, 而她們的財務報表也相對地簡單易讀, 初哥可以以鑽研這兩類型公司業務和年報作為投資入門。

以下是8個較為基本股票的名詞術語初學股票投資者需要認識。

常用名詞解釋
1.上市公司市值上市公司在證券市場上的市場價格總值; 有關上市公司在相關證券市場上的收市價格乘其已發行的股份總數,例如一間公司收市價為$5.00; 該公司的已發行股數為1億股普通股, 該公司當天市值為5億元。
2.市價盈利率即每股股價除該公司每股盈利如果某股票的市價為30 元,而過去一年的每股盈餘為 3 元,則市價盈利率為 30/3=10倍。
3.市賬率公司股票的市賬率=每股市價除每股淨資產, 例如一間公司股票市賬率等於0.8,代表投資者可以以$0.80元換取企業每1元的淨資產。
4.股息率股息率等於每股派息除每股股價乘100%,以股息率5%為例,投資者用100元買入一間公司股票,投資者在除淨後派息日會收5元。
5.除淨日確定股東身份的日子,投資者必須在這日前買入股票才有股息收。
6.供股供股是公司上市後集資的手法之一,以2009年3-4月匯控每12股供5股為例 ,即原有12股再增發5股,讓股本增倍,所有股東都會有供股權,在指定期間內行使,股東可以選擇賣出供股權,也可以行使供股權,即以折讓股價$28(比市場價低)買入更多股票,若不行使,供股權會變無效,股東權益會比攤薄(企業盈利和資產會比其他增加股份分薄)。
7.合股合股是企業減少股本和股數的手法,如1合1,即原有1股和令1股二合為一股,股價即時上升一倍。
8.拆股股票分割又稱股票拆細,即將一張較大面值的股票拆成幾張較小面值的股票。 例子:2014年3月: 騰訊控股1拆5。

Learning investment from zero foundation(2): Listing company Shares Investment

Contemporary Company Shares History

In 1596, the Dutch East India Company, which issued shares to the public for the first time i to fund voyage expeditions and activities in Asia. After the voyage, the company return the capital contribute and profit to the fund contributor. It can be regarded as the initial type of "shareholders" and "dividend".

Hong Kong Stock Market brief History

Hong Kong Stock Exchange market was formally set up in 1891 when the Association of Stockbrokers in Hong Kong was established. In 1986, the former 4 stock exchange market unified into one. In 2000, The Stock Exchange, Futures Exchange and the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company all became wholly owned subsidiaries of HKEx. HKEx has two boards- main board and GEM board.

When a company need more capital for growth, she can introduce new shareholders by issue new shares or public listing through fund raising from shareholders. Investors buy stock means they supply fund and do the business with the company together. If the company get profit, she may give shareholders dividend for return. Shareholders can sell shares to get profit from the price difference.

The minimum buying amount in the Hong Kong stock market is 1 lot, for instance, a investor buy 1 lot 500 shares 823.HK The Link REITs near the market closed price with HKD$91.00 on 18 April 2019, the buying consideration cost was HKD$HKD$45,500; brokerage fee(assume 0.25%):HKD$113.75; CCASS settlement fee was about HKD$2.00; 0.1% buying stamp duty HKD$45.50, SFC Transaction Levy around 0.0027%:HKD$1.23; HKEX trading fee around 0.005%:HKD$2.28, total settlement amount was:-HKD$45,664.76.

If an investor cannot afford to buy one lot for a share, he can consider to join the monthly stock saving plan (purchase fixed time and amount of stock) during the end of bear market to the early stage of bull market. This can help them not miss the opportunities in the suitable time.

Stock investor beginners can focus research and study Utility and REITs stocks in the market as their business is relative easy understand and their financial reports are comparatively not difficult to read and understand.

There are 8 terms stock investor beginners need to know:-

Common termsExplanation
1.Market capitalization Total market value of a listing company = Market price X shares issued ,for example a listing company with market closed price $5.00 with one hundred million shares, market capitalization turns into five hundred million dollars.
2.Price earning ratio (PE ratio) Unit share price $30/Unit share earning $3, PE equals to 10 times.
3.Price to book value (PB) PB=Unit share price /Unit share net assets, e.g.: PB=0.8 means investor can buy a company's 1 dollar net assets with only $0.80 pay out.
4.Dividend yieldDividend yield equals to dividend/share price X 100%, an investor an get $5 out of $100 invest at 5% yield after Ex-Dividend Date.
5.Ex-Dividend DateEx-dividend describes a stock that is trading without the value of the next dividend payment.
6.Right issueA rights offering (rights issue) is a group of rights offered to existing shareholders to purchase additional stock shares, known as subscription warrants, in proportion to their existing holdings. These are considered to be a type of option since it gives a company's stockholders the right, but not the obligation, to purchase additional shares in the company. During March -April 2009, HSBC(5.HK) raise fund by right issue 5 new shares for every 12 at $28.00.
7.reverse stock splitreverse split is a process by which shares of corporate stock are effectively merged to form a smaller number of proportionally more valuable shares.
8.Stock splitA stock split is a corporate action in which a company divides its existing shares into multiple shares to boost the liquidity of the shares. Although the number of shares outstanding increases by a specific multiple, the total dollar value of the shares remains the same compared to pre-split amounts. Example: March 2014: 700.HK Tencent 5-for-1.

一.本網頁屬個人網誌,為網主作為記事之用,並非提供投資建議。 1. This is a personal blog page for recording and cannot regard as investment advice.

二.本網頁部分內容可能會提及個別投資項目,請注意,一切言論並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關言論招致損失,概與本人無涉。 2. This page may mention individual investment option, please be attention the content does not invite, suggest or recommend reader to make certain kinds of investment. Readers need to make investment decision themselve. The blog writer does not responsible to any loss incur after reading this blog passage.

三.網主保留本文版權。 3. Blog writer reserved the copy-right of this passage.

2019年4月7日 星期日

零基礎學投資(壹) -- 外幣定期存款

零基礎學投資(壹) -- 外幣定期存款, 現在簡單介紹一下做外幣外定期存款的概念。

一般來說銀行提供外幣定期存款幣種有: 美元(USD),日元(JPY),英鎊(GBP),澳洲元(AUD), 新西蘭元 (NZD), 加拿大元(CAD), 歐羅 (EUR)和 人民幣(RMB)等等。

例如在2000年-2001年強美元時期, 候低買入澳洲元, 新西蘭元儲蓄用作定期生息成本也較低。 投資外幣收息, 銀行會用電匯買入/賣出價與存戶結算~~ 例如某銀行2019年4月6日美元電匯買入價為 7.8384, 賣出價為7.8604 ,銀行主要賺這220點子中間差價, 當港幣轉成外幣後可以存在活期或定期存款收息。

影響外幣匯率主要有幾個:

1. 兩國貨幣的供應和需求, 匯率就是交換的均衡點;

2. 該外幣的購買力 ~~名義匯率=實際匯率X通貨膨脹比率,就是實際匯率的基礎上再考慮通貨膨脹的影響,衡量了一國貨幣的購買力水平;例如美國2009-11年間實行了三次貨幣量化寬鬆, 在這期間, 是弱美元, 強外幣的時代 (歐羅, 澳,紐,加元都與美元相反,在這段時間上升)

3.經濟因素,主要是一個國的投資,國民生產總值增長,國際貿易,資本流動等。例如國民生產總值增長吸引了外國直接投資導致對該國貨幣需求的增加,從而引起該國貨幣匯率上升。

4.利率因素: 例如由2015年起美國開始加息,導致資金回流美元區投資或存款, 而相對的歐羅, 澳,紐,加元都與美元相反, 呈下跌趨勢。

5. 當然, 亦有其他因素: 例如突發事件令資金避開風險買進美元, 政府干預 例如香港金管局便在$7.85 買入港元, 沽出美元以保持聯繫匯率穩定便是。

投資外幣, 要識兩樣野: 1)美匯指數 和 2)美元週期:-

1)美匯指數:美元指數,又稱美滙指數,是衡量美元在國際外匯市場匯率變化的一項綜合指標,由美元對六個主要國際貨幣(歐元、日元、英鎊、加拿大元、瑞典克朗和瑞士法郎)的匯率經過加權幾何平均數計算獲得。

在1973年3月布雷頓森林體系解體後,美元指數開始被選作參照點。那時美元指數是100.00。

目前該6國貨幣佔美元指數權重為: 歐元佔57.6%, 日元佔13.6%, 英鎊佔11.9%, 加元佔9.1%, 瑞典克朗佔4.2%, 瑞士法朗佔3.6%。

2)美元週期:-是指美元兌一藍子外幣如歐元,日元,英鎊,加元,瑞典克朗,瑞士法朗等在不同時間有強有弱,形成週期。

附以下圖表撮要了由1973年至2017年的強弱美元週期。

時間美元強弱
1973-1980弱美元
1981-1985強美元
1986-1995弱美元
1996-2001強美元
2002-2011弱美元
2012-2017強美元

應用:由於香港實行聯繫匯率, 在強美元美匯指數見頂時買入外幣收息理論上匯率風險及投資成本是較低的。

Learning investment from zero foundation(1):Foreign Currency Deposit: We are discuss the concepts of foreign currency deposit today.

Generally speaking, banks provide different currencies for deposit such as USD$, Japanese yen (JPY), British pounds (GBP), AUD$, NZD$, (GBP),CAD, Euro and Reminbi (RMB).

For instance, purchased foreign currencies like AUD and NZD during the strong USD period in years of 2000-2001 and put into fixed time deposit could enjoy lower cost. For investing foreign currencies for interest earning, bank will use teletransfer buy rate and sell rate to settle with the customers. For example, the bank buy 1 USD with HKD$7.8384, sell 1 USD$ with HKD$7.8604, the bank can earn 220 points difference as profit. After changing into foreign currency, the money can be either put into saving account or time deposit account.

There are several factors affecting forex rate:

1. the money demand and supply goes into equilibrium foreign exchange price.

2. purchasing power: nominal exchange rate =real exchange rate X inflation rate; for considering exchange rate need to take inflation and purchasing power into consideration. USA launched three times quantitative easing during 2009-2011, during that period USD$ was weak and other foreign currencies were relatively strong.

3. economic factor: Investment, Gross domestic production amount, balance of international trade, capital movement can affect forex. Foreign direct investment in a country can stimulate the demand of that currency thus push that currency value increases.

4. Interest rate:for example since 2015, US started to raise the interest rate thus attract capital move into US zone, other foreign currencies exchange rate started to fall.

5. Other factors like buying USD$ for risk avoidance and Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased USD$ ate 7.85 to maintain steady linked exchange rate.

Investing foreign currency need to know two things: (1)USD Index and (2)USD cycle.

(1)The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight,Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight,Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight,Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight,Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

(2)USD cycle:the strong and weak USD composite the trend during a time frame. The above table and diagram summarize the trends of strong and weak USD for about 50 years.

Application: Since Hong Kong adopt linked exchange rate, depositor purchase foreign currency for interest earning when USD Index reached the peak can enjoy lower forex risk and lower cost.


一.本網頁屬個人網誌,為網主作為記事之用,並非提供投資建議。 1. This is a personal blog page for recording and cannot regard as investment advice.

二.本網頁部分內容可能會提及個別投資項目,請注意,一切言論並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關言論招致損失,概與本人無涉。 2. This page may mention individual investment option, please be attention the content does not invite, suggest or recommend reader to make certain kinds of investment. Readers need to make investment decision themselve. The blog writer does not responsible to any loss incur after reading this blog passage.

三.網主保留本文版權。 3. Blog writer reserved the copy-right of this passage.

2019年4月1日 星期一

壞消息的邊際遞減定律

壞消息的邊際遞減定律應用在投資市場上近年有2個情景

2016年6月英國公投通過"脫歐"; 之後環球股市大跌, 英鎊大瀉。

之後, 陸逐而來的脫歐消息不斷,到近來英國國會接二連三否決脫歐議案, 股市反而上升, 看來股市對英國公投通過"脫歐"已經無負面反應;

套用在另一情景~~2018年3月尾, 美國宣佈向中國貨品徵收關稅引發貿易戰; 當時令中港股市步入小熊市調整, 美股2018年第4季更有顯著回吐,但結果係2018年12月開始 中美開始坐低傾, 又開始有和緩跡象~~投資市場對中美貿易戰 "壞消息"有了心理預期後, 已經無負面反應; 可見同一個壞消息不斷出現依循了經濟學的邊際遞減定律。

既然對壞消息開始免役, 看來中港股市已經進入了牛市第一期:-

牛市第一期初段和熊市第三期末段互相混合在一起,或者我們可以說牛市第一期初段相等於熊市第三期末段。牛市第一期通常是在市場最悲觀的情形下出現,當時投資者對市場已經完全心灰意冷,他們不計成本拋出所有的股票,準備離開市場。其實這才是真正的入貨良機!因此,那些有遠見的投資者,雖然看見整體經濟仍然處於不景氣的階段,利淡的經濟消息接踵而來,但已感覺到市場正處於黎明前最黑暗的時刻,情況即將會有改變。於是他們開始有耐性地限價買入,市場的交投漸漸出現改變的徵兆,成交當時雖然還十分低沉,但在回升時已見有微量的增加。經過一段時間的低徊,大部分股票從弱者流向強者手上之後熊市便真正宣告死亡,另一次漫長的升市亦屆開步了。

牛市第一期經過強者有耐心的吸入後,大市開始穩步上升,每一次回落時的低點都較上次為高,於是引來新的投資者入市,形成大市上升成交增加的現象。這時候上市公司利好的消息開始出現,公司業績好轉,盈利增加引起投資者的注意,進一步刺激入市的興趣。