Apple(AAPL) Quarter 4 2021 Earnings results 蘋果公司2021年第4季盈利報告

Apple’s overall revenue was still up 29%.

蘋果公司2021年第4季營業收入仍然增加29%。

EPS(每股純利): USD$1.24美元

Revenue(營業收入): USD$83.36 billion

iPhone revenue(iPhone 收入): USD$38.87 billion

Services revenue(服務收入): USD$18.28 billion

Other Products revenue(其他產品收入): USD$8.79 billion

Mac revenue(Mac收入): USD$9.18 billion

iPad revenue(iPAD收入): USD$8.25 billion

Gross margin(毛利率): 42.2%

Brief analysis (簡單分析)

1.iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates. CEO Tim Cook said Apple will face chips supply constraints.

1. iPhone 雖然營業收入按年增加47%, 但仍低於華爾街估計. 首席執行官 Tim Cook 指出蘋果公司將會面對晶片供應的限制。

2.Apple(AAPL) shareprice valuation: Oct 28, 2021, Apple post market (after trade hours) stock price is USD$147.19 with PE=29.88, this is a neutral fair share price to buy at this share price level, If its earning per share(EPS) reaches USD$5.97 in the year 2023 with 30 times PE, the share price may reach USD$179.10.

2. 蘋果公司股價估值: 2021年10月28日交易時段後蘋果公司股價 USD$147.19;市盈率29.88倍, 股價是在中性公平市價去買入的水平, 如2023年每股盈利上升到USD$5.97, 以30倍PE計算, 蘋果公司到時股價有望到達USD$179.10的水平。

香港交易所2021年第1至第3季業績

香港交易所2021年第1至第3季業績:-

主要業務收入: $156.45億 (比2020年第1至第3季增加:14%);

營運支出: $33.29億 (比2020年第1季至第3季增加:6%);

股東應佔溢利: $98.61億(比2020年第1季至第3季增加:15%);

基本每股盈利: $7.79元 (比2020年第1季至第3季增加:15%)。

微軟公司2021至2022年度第1季業績 Microsoft 2022 Quarter 1 Earnings Report

Microsoft 2022 Quarter 1 Earnings Report:-

微軟公司2021至2022年第1季業績簡報:-

Microsoft's Revenue was $45.3 billion and increased 22%.

微軟公司2022年度年第1季營業收益: $453億美元, 比去年同期增加22%。

Operating income was $20.2 billion and increased 27%.

營運收益: $202億美元, 比去年同期增加27%。

Net income was $20.5 billion GAAP and $17.2 billion non-GAAP, and increased 48% and 24%, respectively.

純利: 根據一般會計準則: $205億(比去年同期增加48%),根據非一般會計準則:$172億(比去年同期增加24%)。

Diluted earnings per share was $2.71 GAAP and $2.27 non-GAAP, and increased 49% and 25%, respectively.

每股稀釋純利: 根據一般會計準則: $2.71美元(比去年同期增加49%),根據非一般會計準則:$2.27美元(比去年同期增加25%)。

GAAP results include a $3.3 billion net income tax benefit explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section

根據一般會計準則財務結果包括一筆:$33億美元稅務優惠, 在非一般會計準則有關項目中已經解釋。

Brief analysis 簡單分析:-

1.Microsoft's 2021 quarter 1 earnings result benefits from 31% growth in Intelligent Cloud revenue.

1.微軟公司2021至2022年第1季業績受惠於智能雲收益增長31%的貢獻

2.Microsoft will play one of the important role in the "Metaverse".

2.微軟公司將來會在"元宇宙"中扮演一個重要角色。

3.Microsoft shareprice valuation: Oct 26, 2021, Microsoft close stock price is USD$310.11 with PE=38.191, this is a bit expensive to buy at this share price level, If its earning per share(EPS) reaches USD$10.16 in the year 2023 with 30 times PE, the share price may reach USD$305.00. That means current Microsoft share price includes future 2 years earning growth expectation.

3.微軟公司股價估值: 2021年10月26日 微軟公司收市股價 USD$310.11;市盈率38.191倍, 股價已經是偏貴去買入的水平, 如2023年每股盈利上升到USD$10.16, 以30倍PE計算, 微軟公司到時股價有望到達USD$305.00水平, 這表示目前股價估值已經包含了未來2年的盈利增長在內。

FaceBook 2021年第3季業績 FaceBook Quarter 3, 2021 Earning report

FaceBook 2021年第3季業績

FaceBook Quarter 3, 2021 Earning report

Earnings per share(每股純利): USD$3.22美元

Revenue(營業收入): USD$290.1億美元

Daily active users (DAUs)每日活躍用戶人數:19.3億人

Monthly active users (MAUs)每月活躍用戶人數:29.1億人

Average revenue per user (ARPU):平均用戶收入: USD$10.00美元

面書的未來業務有三個亮點.

Facebook business has three brightspots.

1. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a significant $10 billion USD investment in the “metaverse,” with higher expenses to follow in subsequent years,

1.面書首席執行官朱克伯格宣佈未來數年會投資USD$100億美元投入"元宇宙"發展項目。

2. Secondly, Facebook is continuing develop artifical intelligence technologies like Automatic Speech Recognition, ASR,擴增實境（Augmented Reality，簡稱AR) AR glasses. Those will become popular technologies in the near future.

2.再者,面書持續研究發展一些人工智能(Artifical intelligence)技術;例如語音識別學習人工智能技術,擴增實境AR眼鏡等應該是未來會流行的科技。

3.Finally, the marketplace of facebook electronic business platform enable facebook users easily introduce and sell new and second hand products. That means Facebook can turn users stickiness into business income.

Facebook Marketplace

3. 最後,Facebook 的 marketplace 電子商貿平台可讓facebook使用者輕鬆在所在地區買賣或向商家購買全新和二手商品。即面書可以運用使用者黏性轉化成為業務收入。

Facebook Marketplace

Facebook shareprice valuation: Oct 25, 2021, FB close stock price is USD$328.69 with PE=23.46, this is a barely worth to buy a few shares share price level, If its earning per share(EPS) reaches USD$18.85 in the year 2023 with 25 times PE, facebook stock price may rise up to USD$471.00.

面書股價估值: 2021年10月25日Facebook 收市股價USD$328.69;市盈率23.46倍, 算是勉強可以小量輕微值得買的水平, 如2023年每股盈利上升到USD$18.85, 以25倍PE計算, facebook到時股價有望提升至USD$471.00。

面書業務的亮點 Facebook business brightspots

面書的業務有何亮點?

What are the Facebook business brightspots?

面書持續研究發展一些人工智能(Artifical intelligence)技術;例如語音識別學習人工智能技術,擴增實境AR眼镜等應該是未來會流行的科技。

Facebook is continuing develop artifical intelligence technologies like Automatic Speech Recognition, ASR,擴增實境（Augmented Reality，簡稱AR) AR glasses. Those will become popular technologies in the near future.

其次,Facebook 的 marketplace 電子商貿平台可讓facebook使用者輕鬆在所在地區買賣或向商家購買全新和二手商品。即面書可以運用使用者黏性轉化成為業務收入。

Secondly, the marketplace of facebook electronic business platform enable facebook users easily introduce and sell new and second hand products. That means Facebook can turn users stickiness into business income.

Facebook Marketplace

面書股價估值: 2021年10月15日Facebook 收市股價USD$324.76;市盈率24.06倍, 算是勉強可以小量輕微值得買的水平, 如2023年每股盈利上升到USD$18.85, 以25倍PE計算, facebook到時股價有望提升至USD$471.00。

Facebook shareprice valuation: Oct 15, 2021, FB close stock price is USD$324.76 with PE=24.06, this is a barely worth to buy a few shares share price level, If its earning per share(EPS) reaches USD$18.85 in the year 2023 with 25 times PE, facebook stock price may rise up to USD$471.00.

港股恆指2021年第4季波浪預測

港股恆指本輪跌浪A浪回吐如下:

A浪下跌:18/2/21-27/7/21:恆指由31,183點下跌下跌至24,748點,共跌6,435點(A浪跌幅), 恆指週線圖27/7/21:RSI(14)跌至32.826,HSI PE大約10.90倍, A浪調整看來已經完成。

B浪如果21年7月27日至8月11日港股恆指展開反彈, 反彈幅度超過A浪跌幅6,435點的0.236倍[反彈1,519點]:恆指本輪B浪反彈波浪升幅幅度已經在11/8/21抵達26,822點, 反彈了2,074點(反彈了A浪跌幅的32.23%,介乎A浪跌幅0.236至0.382倍之間),已經完成此反彈目標;

C浪:恆指由21年8月11日開始進入C浪調整, 至2021年10月5日恆指最低點;23,681點, 以5個子浪完成;

8/10/2021 HSI:24,837,85, PE=10.24, PB=1.0444, 即 5/10/21 HSI 最底位已經只有0.9958倍PB, 再度輕微跌穿1.00倍PB。

看來港股恆指大跌8個月大調整:7,502點後在23,600點水平喘定,初步完成。

展望2021年第4季會展開一個反彈浪, 如果反彈跌浪的0.382倍 X7,502 + 23,681 =26,546

若反彈力度較強:如果反彈跌浪的0.5倍 X7,502 + 23,681 =27,432。

比較保守估計, 港股恆指2021年第4季至2022年初波浪,反彈浪水平大約在26,500-27,500水平, 即第4季好大可能在23,600至27,500點這接近4千點水平區間波動。

趁壞消息買入小量面書股票; Buy a few shares of Facebook when its bad news

2021年, 我已經很少買美股了, 就算買都是好細注, 畢竟道指已三萬四千樓上, 上望空間已經開始有限。

In 2021, I seldom purchase U.S shares, even though I buy them with only a very small amount and quantity. Dow Jones Index is at 34,000 points level, the uprising room is limit.

2021年10月4日美國時間 Facebook, WhatsApp 及 Instagram 全面HANG 機, 無法連線,無法使用。 Facebook 股價急跌半成。

In October 4, 2021, Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram all down in major , no service and cannot use, Facebook shares price drop nearly 5%.

趁壞消息:-Facebook, WhatsApp 及 Instagram 全面HANG 機, 無法連線,無法使用-----買入小量面書股票 @USD$325.48

Facebook pass a bad luck day ---Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram all down in major in October 4, 2021 , no service and cannot use --Buy a few shares of Facebook at @USD$325.48

長遠來說, 交朋友,溝仔/女 親友聯絡, 社交平台業務長線仍有可為。

In the long term, makes friends, makes boy/girl friends, relatives and friends communication still need a social media platform.

美股道指本輪牛市頂部預測 U.S. this bull stock market (Dow Jone Index) cycle forecast

美股道指本輪牛市頂部預測。

U.S. this bull stock market (Dow Jone Index) cycle forecast

美股杜瓊斯指數於2020年3月23日以18,213.65點見底後逐步回升, 為本輪牛市之開始。

U.S. stock Dow Jones Index reached the lowest bottom on March 23, 2020 and it rose again, this is a new bull market started in March 2020 in this round.

套用美股道指歷史市盈率數據,道指市盈率大約22倍附近便會見頂回吐

By applying U.S. DJI historical data, DJI will reach the highest when it reached around 22 times PE ratio.

Year 年份	DJI higest 道指頂部	DJI PE 道指市盈率
3/2002	10,673	24.X
10/2007	14,198	18.X

2021年10月1日道指收市:34,326點;市盈率:20.67倍; 當道指市盈率大約22倍, 道指約36,600點附近才會遇上上升阻力。

1 Oct 2021 closing DJI:34,326, PE:20.67, When DJI reaches around 36,600 points(PE=22), it may face uprising pressure.

2021年第4季美股牛市; 2021 Quarter 4 U.S. stock bull market

美股杜瓊斯指數於2020年3月23日以18,213.65點見底後逐步回升, 為本輪牛市之開始。

U.S. stock Dow Jones Index reached the lowest bottom on March 23, 2020 and it rose again, this is a new bull market started in March 2020 in this round.

一浪上升了5個多月後, 至2020年9月3日:29,199.35點見頂 (由23/3/20升了10,985.7點至3/9/2020);

Wave 1 rose from March 23, 2020 to Sep 3, 2020, it rose continuously in that five months and Dow Jone Index reached 29,199.35 points.

之後2020年9月3日至2020年10月30日兩個月行緊一個二浪調整浪週期, 回吐調整大約2個月。

Next, it started correction wave 2 (Sep 3 -Oct 30, 2020) it substained about 2 months.

3/9/20-30/10/20 DOW JONES INDEX 回吐跌了3,055.58點到30/10/20:26,143.77點見底, 二浪回吐升幅27.8%,

Dow Jones Index reached 26,143.77 on Oct 30, 2020 after dropping 3,055.58 points and ended wave 2 correction.

自31/10/20至16/8/21三浪再度上升;道指進行三浪上升,由2浪大浪底部已經升了近9千5百點(9,488點)至35,631點[當時RSI(14):63.63], 三浪上升近9個多月(這浪最長)可能已經完成。

Dow Jones Index rose again in Wave 3 about 9,488 points with the longest rise wave, it reached 35,631 points on 16 August, 2021 (RSI(14):63.63).

2021年8月16日至9月20日可能進行了四浪回吐。 9月20日在33,613點, 跌了2,018點 跌去3浪升幅20.28%, 完成4浪築底。

Then, it started correction wave 4 (Aug 16 - Sep 20, 2021) it dropped about 20.28% of wave 3(2,018 points), 20 Sep 2021 Dow Jones Index reached 33,613 points and finished wave 4 correction.

由2021年9月20日見底後,目前是道指上升五浪, 目標會高過3浪頂 35,631點。

After finishing wave 4 correction, now is moving in wave 5, the target will be more than 35,631 points!

美國默克藥廠（Merck，又稱默沙東、MSD）宣佈臨牀實驗證實，其研發的口服新藥「Molnupiravir」能夠大幅降低新冠患者的重症住院或死亡風險, 這有助2021年第4季美股牛市持續。

Merck declared after empirical tests, the new medicine Molnupiravir can dramatically reduce the COVID 19 serious cases or death risk, this can help the U.S. bull stock market continue in quarter 4, 2021.